SharpSharks — Historical Odds Dashboard

0.585

ROC-AUC

55.8%

Accuracy

0.237

Brier Score

0.664

Log Loss

28,112

Train Samples

13,153

Test Samples

Model Comparison

Model	CV AUC	Test AUC	Test Accuracy
LightGBM ✓	0.421 ± 0.134	0.585	55.8%
XGBoost	0.421 ± 0.134	0.583	56.0%

Book	Edges	Win Rate	Avg Edge	Status
BetUS	46	65.2%	10.9%	Exploitable
Bovada	527	59.0%	16.9%	Exploitable
Fanatics	172	56.4%	13.9%	Marginal
BetRivers	253	56.1%	18.4%	Marginal
Caesars	492	55.7%	15.4%	Marginal
FanDuel	629	55.2%	14.4%	Marginal
DraftKings	637	54.6%	15.4%	Tough
BetMGM	638	54.5%	17.9%	Tough

📌 Pinnacle is King

Pinnacle's devigged prob is the strongest single predictor. But multi-book consensus adds real alpha on top.

📊 Book-Specific Edges

DK & FD edge features rank #1-2 in importance. BetUS shows 65% win rate on 3%+ edges.

⚠️ Big Edges = Traps

10%+ edges underperform at 49.1%. Sweet spot is 0-4% at 63%+ hit rate. Model TRAP flags catch this.

🎯 Moneyline > Spreads > Totals

ML edges hit ~70%. Spreads ~53%. Totals ~52%. Focus scanning on moneyline for highest conviction.